Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
